It’s that point of yr once more — when folks on the Web inform economists that that the Nobel Prize in economics is just not an actual Nobel. And it’s additionally that point of yr once more the place I make predictions, so right here goes. I’ve three teams I’m going to counsel. The one on the prime is the one I really feel most strongly about, then the second after which the third. And by “feels strongly”, I simply imply I need this one.
Autor, Katz and Acemoglu for talent biased technological change
Like final yr, I’m going with David Autor, Larry Katz and Daron Acemoglu for talent biased technological change. You ask, “however didn’t Acemoglu win it final yr?” To which I’ll say “sure he did.” However then you definitely’ll say “however then why are you predicting him a second time?” To which I say, “as a result of he deserves to win it for this space with Autor and Katz”.
In case you learn carefully the prize that Claudia Goldin received just a few years in the past, it’s fascinating that her work with Katz on the race between training and expertise actually wasn’t emphasised — which I believed was fascinating. I believed it was fascinating as a result of that’s her most cited work, so by not acknowledging that, it made me suppose they had been preserving the talent biased technological change work, to which she contributed significantly, to others.
It’s a late night, so I don’t have quite a lot of vitality, however you may watch a few movies of interviews I did with Autor and Katz under.
Susan Athey and Victor Chernozhukov for causal machine studying
I really like this prize, as I really like each of those folks and suppose they’re geniuses. Susan’s physique of labor is fascinating as a result of the issues she received the John Bates Clark award for — a big physique of essential work on micro concept and auctions — is just not actually what she’s spent the final 20 years engaged on ever since. That has been a physique of essential work on causal inference and machine studying.
Victor is somebody I look as much as an incredible deal. We’re purported to get espresso one in all lately now that I’m in Boston—hopefully quickly. It’s not a query of whether or not Victor will win the Nobel Prize a lot as it’s a query of when. And I might find it irresistible if he received it this yr, although if he did, I guess getting him to satisfy me for espresso someplace will get significantly more durable.
I don’t have an interview with Victor, however I do have an interview with Susan.
Berry, Levinhson and Pakes for demand estimation and empirical IO
And lastly, I’m going to award it to BLP and demand estimation, perhaps empirical IO. I don’t understand how they’ll group it, however I feel it is a good guess. Right here’s an interview I did with Berry.
And right here’s one with Pakes.
And here’s a workshop about BLP developing taught by Jeff Gortmaker. It’s best to come!
And that’s it. I’ve different stuff I’m desirous to share, however for now, I’m going to finish it there. Good luck everybody above — I’m rooting for you all!
