Closing tabs from Lake Maggiore

Ciao! Greetings once more from Stresa in Lake Maggiore. I’ve some good footage and movies of this space that I’ll sprinkle all through. How would I describe this space to Individuals? Right here’s an imperfect and possibly incorrect description. The primary comparability is think about the lodge in Wes Anderson film, The Grand Budapest Resort. Outdated, luxurious, large European inns. These are the sorts of inns that align the lake. I’ve really by no means seen any of those up shut earlier than. And in reality the extra I thought of it after I noticed them, I don’t know if I really believed they have been in operation nonetheless. These are mighty, majestic, previous inns. My lodge doesn’t have digital keycards to get in, however really precise keys on massive brass key rings that sit behind the entrance desk. Perhaps 25% that.

Then think about Lake Tahoe — a vacation spot lake crammed with folks coming from all around the nation, and the world, to calm down, trip, go to eating places and retailers, with their households. Perhaps they’re getting married, perhaps they’re solitary vacationers like me, perhaps they’re on their honeymoon. Take into consideration the pure magnificence there. Perhaps 35% that.

And at last think about the Nice Lakes — Lake Superior, Lake Michigan, and so forth. Lake Maggiore is Italy’s largest lake, and it’s shared with Switzerland. All alongside the lake are small cities, and so lots of them are breathtaking and fascinating. Perhaps 40% that.

That’s type of how I’d describe it. Listed below are a few YouTubes I discovered of Stresa.

I might positively depend this as one of the vital stunning locations I’ve ever been. However it’s completely different, too. It’s not city for one. And it’s on a large lake with ferries and boats. You’ll be able to inform it’s a lake and never the ocean, however it’s additionally in contrast to any lake I’ve ever laid eyes on. For one it has islands with what seems to be enormous mansions or inns of some variety you could solely attain by ferry. Nonetheless, it’s stunning. I believe I’d choose Arono, as a result of it felt extra like a discovery of a small oasis, unassuming, not terribly touristy, nice buying, scrumptious meals. It felt a bit extra Italian, whereas I wouldn’t say that Stresa feels Italian as a result of it doesn’t remind me of Pisa, Bologna, Rome, Milan, Naples, Turin, or any of the opposite cities I’ve visited a number of occasions. It’s extra like a resort city.

Tomorrow I’ve to catch a prepare to the Madrid airport the place I shall be flying to Berlin for a two day workshop. I’ll head again to Italy, to Lucca Italy the place I visited for a few weeks final yr, to current at IMT and meet with college students. After which as soon as that’s carried out, I transfer into the house stretch to KU Leuven, after which in two weeks, San Sebastián!

However sufficient about me. Let’s shut some tabs lets! Thanks all on your help!

Right here is extra about “Milan and the lakes” for these excited about going.

Two new publications of mine. One on HAART and its impact on syphilis in Well being Economics with David Beheshti and Nir Eilam. The opposite on the Nationwide Out of doors Management Faculty (NOLS), peer results and non-cognitive capacity revealed in Southern Financial Journal coauthored with Ben Blemings and Matthew Pearson.

Fairly a journey each of those have been. In my previous workplace, beginning in 2008, my partitions at Baylor have been each single state’s female and male syphilis charges displaying what seemed to be dramatic rises in syphilis amongst males solely (not females) across the time that HAART (extremely lively retroviral therapy, one of many major medical improvements within the therapy for HIV) was launched. I nonetheless bear in mind buying the county-level prescription information for round 70 medicines related to HAART and earlier “AIDS cocktail” medicines, in addition to all the erectile dysfunction medicines. I simply by no means might sit down and work on it. My manufacturing perform has all the time been such that I can get “caught” at a selected a part of the pipeline, spinning on some initiatives time and again till they’re carried out, and simply not optimally allocating time on others in any respect. David and Nir got here in with a imaginative and prescient for the challenge and with out them, it will have by no means been accomplished. So I’m deeply appreciative and amazed on the economists that they’re. Wonderful economists.

After which that Southern. That paper was onerous to publish. Pearson is certainly one of my oldest and closest mates from school. He did his PhD in economics at UC Davis with Hilary Hoyne and Anne Case as his advisors I believe, and was classmates with a number of of my coauthors like Melanie Guldi and Jason Lindo. Matt didn’t go into academia, however moderately first went to work for Orley Ashenfelter, then Airbnb, then Robin Hood after which began his personal firm known as Moon Fabricators. Matt had the concept for this paper and I satisfied him to let me and Ben work on it. Ben actually championed this paper. With out him, it will’ve by no means survived all of the rejections. Wonderful economists.

As you already know, Trump administration suspends using Fable 5 for overseas nationals because of safety issues. However, as of yesterday, it was then prolonged to everybody. Nobody can use Mythos and Fable 5. There had been dialogue of Trump passing an government order that will require 30 day overview of all new frontier fashions, however this doesn’t appear associated to this.

I’m wondering if any of it has to do with OpenAI’s imminent worth struggle although.

A captivating graphic from a Brookings piece on AI publicity and democratic vote share.

Imbalanced therapy and management on variables that decide final result ranges just isn’t an issue with diff-in-diff as a result of the primary differencing deletes them. However imbalance on covariates that decide Y(0) tendencies? That’s an issue as that one factor alone will bias your estimated therapy impact by violating parallel tendencies. Right here’s a bit of bit about that with warnings about matching on covariates that handle ranges however not tendencies.

Kevin Warsh received’t be holding press conferences predictably. He additionally needs to make use of trimmed information with dropped excessive outliers. Can be curious how massive a distinction that that makes.

What’s life like financially and in any other case at Starbase in texas.

Olivia Rodrigo places out one other hit.

Anthropic opinion ballot exhibits the geographic distribution of issues over AI (and different stuff).

A canine bites man story — a {photograph} of a lady in Boston exhibits her together with her boyfriend seated beside her, and her roommate and her speaking, and irony of ironies, she and the boyfriend broke up and he or she and the roommate obtained married. What are the percentages.

Knowledge facilities aren’t fashionable, creating NIMBY mattress fellows, which is why this received’t be the final cry of protection we learn.

Elon is a trillionaire. A trillion.

Some survey proof of sexual variety amongst Individuals from the Kinsey institute. A few of these numbers are onerous to consider to be sincere and the satan could also be within the particulars. They contacted 4,532 and a couple of,021 accomplished, which is 47% response fee. However right here’s what I perceive occurred that makes me suppose these numbers are inflated. Step one is a chance pattern consultant of America. However they’re then advised it’s a research about sexual habits and sexual relationships. That results in dropping out and refusals. So the pattern begins out with endogenous in who participates. Second, as soon as the pattern exists, as I perceive it, the researchers purchase entry and push a questionnaire to panel members, which is the way you get to 47%. That is decidedly not a random draw of Individuals however once more endogenous. So it’s:

The third time period is the 47%. I can’t discover the opposite two. And extra that is “of invited, what p.c accomplished the survey” not “47% of Individuals surveyed”. The Fed makes use of this panel for SHED and experiences a recruitment fee of 12%. That’s time period 1.

Time period 2 is the chance they full the profile and turn out to be a member. The Fed experiences that to be 64.2 p.c.

So when you multiply these, you get just below 4%, which is way decrease than the 47% reported. And this type of will get you again to the core downside Kinsey had in his unique surveys which have been enormous in quantity however suffered from extreme choice bias given his samples have been drawn from individuals who attended his seminars on intercourse, prisons, and numerous different communities. The NHSLS was explicitly designed to replace that.

Talking of the federal reserve, the SHED is on FRED.

So the headline stats within the summary are to be held with a grain of salt.

A knowledge breach lets third events uncover the personal info of members of a hashish membership.

5 companies invested most likely $300-400 billion AI associated capital on 2025 alone and are anticipated to double it this yr. NBER paper notes with out constructive earnings, this’ll threat chapter.

Experimental proof exhibits employers who reply shortly results in increased acceptances than ready.

Questioning the place you need to ship your Econ article? Do this Econ journal matchmaking service.

Don’t miss these exhibits popping out to summer time (he says to himself).

Estimates of the returns to coursework — and notably constructive for quantitative work.

Fascinating dialogue of how we could also be transferring into a spot the place companies have very brief time period between a safety patch being launched and it being applied as LLMs can transfer faster to reap the benefits of that solely than people have traditionally gone to shut that benefit. From Anthropic.

OpenAI is constant to eye going public. Seems to be imminent.

Three purple flags {that a} friendship might not be value saving. 1) you’ll be able to’t be your self since you’re afraid of dropping the friendship. 2) you manage and provoke each interplay. 3) you’ll be able to’t work by issues collectively.

The Chicago Hoosiers is a carried out deal for the low low worth of $5 billion.

Work at home, covid-19 and psychological well being from Science.

A “blind facet divorce” have to be devastating and traumatizing. Appears manner completely different from the extra conventional scenario the place the one who didn’t need the divorce “didn’t see it coming”. This feels like ghosting. Ghosting a life associate on that stage — can’t think about.

AI summer time residency with the music legend Rick Rubin. Take into account it when you’re studying this!

The Quin Home is on my road in again bay. At all times questioning what goes on in there after I stroll by. One web site stated it has eight eating places?! Right here’s a FAQ. You could get a referral. Right here’s extra and a little extra historical past. Would love to listen to extra about it when you’re in it.

And that’s it! I’m now en path to the airport from the Milan prepare station. Stresa was pretty, and right here’s my remaining schedule.

1. Berlin for 2 days (a workshop and a seminar on my new paper in regards to the habits of AI brokers, autonomy and utilized econometrics).

2. IMT in Lucca to additionally current that paper plus meet with college students finish of this week.

3. KU Leuven for many of subsequent week.

4. Then an actual trip — San Sebastián, and Amelia’s.

Have an important day and an important week!