Groundhog Day: Trump noticed his shadow, so there’s going to be two to a few extra weeks of warfare.
(Attempting to recollect—what occurred round 9:00 Jap time?)
Let’s verify with Josh Marshall.
I feel any press one who watched President Trump’s Iran cheer-up session speech on fact serum must concede that this was a speech he shouldn’t have given. He meandered. He seemed unhealthy and worn out. He had the requisite moments when his degenerate internal monologue creeps into the open: he stated that free passage by way of the Strait of Hormuz is one thing for importer nations in Asia to take care of, that they need to “seize and cherish” the Strait, as if it had been some underage magnificence pageant contestant Trump was hungering to assault. [He also announced the US was “hottest country anywhere in the world by far, with no inflation.’’ which was both off topic and not exactly reality based — MP] “What’s vital is that in political and public opinion phrases, there was nothing new or newsworthy on this speech. They didn’t even handle to perform this within the slim and cynical sense of claiming something new that could possibly be a recent level of public dialogue. It was a rambling set of unconvincing excuses nobody with any actual concern or nervousness about this warfare (the one actual viewers) would discover convincing. Why are you complaining, he asks? This warfare hasn’t gone on almost so long as World Warfare II! LOL.
There’s no announcement coming. There isn’t any plan.
— Kai Ryssdal (@kairyssdal.bsky.social) April 1, 2026 at 6:13 PM
The “taco commerce” was at all times primarily based on a number of fallacies: the belief that Trump would cease doing this silly/loopy factor earlier than it did any harm; the belief that he wouldn’t revert to the disastrous coverage; and the belief that the backing out couldn’t go within the incorrect course.
We have now seen no less than one case of a “double taco,” the place Trump was frightened away from a place that was costing him politically, solely to be frightened again into it by worry of MAGA backlash. I understand occasions appear compressed on this administration—it’s tough to imagine it’s been just a bit over one yr—however it wasn’t that way back that Trump, underneath strain from the agricultural sectors in his base, publicly reversed his place on mass deportation of farm employees, solely to flip-flop once more nearly instantly when Stephen Miller received to him.
There are quite a few causes to imagine that we’ve simply seen one other double taco, this time with the administration coming very near a humiliating however most likely best-deal-he-was-going-to-get give up, beginning with the speech itself (Why request community time to perform nothing however spooking the markets?). There have been indications that the Iranians had been getting ready for a ceasefire up till some level throughout Trump’s speech. Even the Israelis appeared to be getting ready for an American withdrawal.
It was, as talked about earlier than, an unpleasant alternative, however it might have alleviated most of Trump’s fast issues—and, provided that the markets had skyrocketed on the mere chance, they unquestionably would have rewarded something that ended the warfare.
Nonetheless, as finest we are able to inform, shortly earlier than the time got here to tug off the Band-Assist, Trump once more chickened out, most likely spooked by the inevitable backlash to capitulation. Probably—given what we all know concerning the man—nonetheless enraged by that day’s Supreme Courtroom proceedings.
Regardless, one other month of warfare will deliver critical ache factors by way of oil/LNG, helium, fertilizer, and vital stagflationary strain on the financial system—to not point out great human struggling.
None of which could be tacoed away.
