This put up is the final in a sequence of seven on inhabitants and other people motion points within the Pacific. The primary six posts featured code re-generating the charts I utilized in a keynote speech earlier than the November 2025 assembly of the Pacific Heads of Planning and Statistics in Wellington, New Zealand. Right this moment’s put up is just a story drawing on all these charts. There’s no R code right now; hyperlinks to the earlier posts are on the backside.
Inhabitants progress is different, however the bigger Pacific island international locations are rising fairly quick
The primary level to make is that the Pacific may be very different by way of its inhabitants dynamics. We will see this a bit in essentially the most easy and intuitive chart of inhabitants historic progress and future projections:
The information this comes from is the United Nations’ 2024 inhabitants projections, that are at the moment used as-is within the Pacific Knowledge Hub. A few of these figures are identified to be unsuitable, both as a result of there have been censuses that reported too late to be taken into consideration (e.g. Federated States of Micronesia) or for different causes (e.g. Tokelau). However they’re a great place to begin.
The vertical scale on that chart is “free” that means every country-facet is on a distinct scale, so it’s not straightforward to inform visually which international locations are bigger or smaller. To assist with this, they’re organised from smallest (Niue) to largest (Papua New Guinea). Pitcairn Islands, though a member of the Pacific Group, just isn’t included due to its tiny dimension (round 50 individuals) even by Pacific requirements.
A little bit of familiarity with the area although, helped by the sequencing on the chart, identifies that the bigger international locations—these within the backside row from Samoa to Papua New Guinea, as much as say Kiribati and Guam within the row above—are rising sooner in addition to being bigger. Nicely that’s hardly shocking is it; sooner rising international locations will in fact turn into bigger, so we’d anticipate this stuff to be associated? Besides that the causality just isn’t multi function course like that. At its excessive, there’s extra to the truth that Niue is just one or two thousand individuals and Papua New Guinea is 10,000 instances its dimension (about 11 million) than that Papua New Guinea has grown sooner not too long ago. Niue’s small bodily land mass, and different traits, are one of many causes it doesn’t develop as quick.
The subsequent chart is an try to illustrate this additional. First, think about a model the place we simply put dimension on the horizontal axis and progress on the vertical. Each axes are logarithmically remodeled, or else the chart could be all clean area with Papua New Guinea out on the correct and all different international locations a cluster of dots on high of eachother on the left.
I fairly like this chart, for audiences with sufficient numeracy to deal with a scatter plot and log axes. The pink shading makes clear which international locations are shrinking, a degree of particular curiosity. The color-coding of factors by sub-region may be very helpful, making clear how the Melanesian international locations cluster collectively within the high proper “massive and rising quick” quadrant; most Polynesian international locations (not all) are shrinking; and Micronesia has an actual combine. The subsequent model of this chart provides a very fascinating aspect to this (in a slide present, you’ll be able to transfer from one chart to the subsequent and it seems like these circles seem by magic):
These circles symbolize the international locations or territories which have some sort of straightforward migration entry to a bigger, richer nation. This contains (conveniently, largely in units of three):
- three French territories (French Polynesia, Wallis and Futuna, New Caledonia);
- three Realm of New Zealand territories (Prepare dinner Islands, Tokelau, Niue);
- Pitcairn Island whose residents (largely) have proper of abode within the UK;
- three USA territories (Guam, Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands, American Samoa)
- three unbiased international locations with a Compact of Free Affiliation with the USA (Palau, Marshall Islands, Federated States of Micronesia)
Now we now have an fascinating function. All the international locations with destructive progress other than Tonga and Tuvalu are highlighted this fashion. Maybe in future we would come with Tuvalu within the checklist above as a result of it does now have particular preparations with Australia and New Zealand that permit a certain quantity of individuals motion, most significantly the Falepili Mobility Pathway scheme that enables 280 everlasting residence visas per 12 months with Australia. However that is too latest to point out up within the chart above.
Samoa and Tonga would not have automated proper of residence to New Zealand however they’ve sturdy cultural and historic ties, massive communities already dwelling there (extra on this later), and the visa obstacles are largely surmountable.
For my part the excellence between the international locations which have straightforward mobility to a bigger richer international locations, and those who don’t, is an important single marker to make use of when contemplating inhabitants points within the Pacific.
Web migration is a crucial issue in numerous inhabitants progress charges
OK, let’s take a look at internet migration. The United Nations has to estimate this as a part of its projection course of so we will see it for all of the international locations of their dataset. Within the under, I’ve organised international locations from these least impacted by migration (high left) to most (backside proper).
There’s just a few exceptional issues right here. One is that the chart is usually pink—migration is almost all outwards. One other is that it leaps round a bit. We will suspect knowledge issues for a few of this eg within the case of Tokelau’s latest years, I simply suppose we now have an error (it’s being checked out).
As a method of drilling into the impression of migration on inhabitants, for only a subset of nations as a result of it’s getting sophisticated, is evaluating the pure fee of enhance (ie births minus deaths) with the online migration—which between them, add as much as complete change in inhabitants for every nation. Right here’s a chart that does that, for simply six international locations:
In every of those charts, we will begin with the inexperienced dashed line, which is the place pure enhance could be with no migration. Then we add (or subtract, typically) the pink dotted line which is internet migration. The sum of those two is the blue strong line, complete inhabitants change. The type of issues we see listed below are:
- For Kiribati and Papua New Guinea, the strong blue line is pretty near the dashed inexperienced line, indicating that pure enhance is what’s driving inhabitants change
- For Samoa and Marshall Islands, the inexperienced dashed pure enhance line may be very optimistic and the pink dotted migration line may be very destructive. These two drivers largely cancel eachother out, however when all is added up Marshall Islands has fast latest inhabitants decline and Samoa nonetheless has some remnant gradual inhabitants progress
- For Niue and Marianas, the story is extra sophisticated however in recent times has stabilised at “not a lot change”
What we’re seeing right here is that migration—or the dearth of it in vital numbers, for Kiribati and Papua New Guinea—is what’s driving the inhabitants story.
Migration (quick and long run) adjustments the form of the origin nation’s demographics
What does this imply for the construction of who’s left? For instance this, I like to match Kiribati and Marshall Islands. Each are totally or largely coral atolls; they’re solely round an hour’s flight from eachother; they usually have few pure assets apart from their individuals, the ocean and its fish, and placement.
Location is a crucial asset or curse for the Marshall Islands. Kwajalein Atoll within the Marshalls was a significant Japanese base in World Conflict II and the positioning of a bloody battle in 1944; now it’s a key US base forming a bridging zone and operational depth between the so-called second (Guam, Palau, Saipan, and so forth.) and third (Aleutians, Hawaii, Samoa, New Zealand) island chains in preparation for the subsequent Pacific warfare, in opposition to whichever eastwards-facing Asian land energy that is likely to be. Bikini Atoll within the Marshalls was the positioning of US nuclear weapon testing throughout the chilly warfare. For our functions, all this issues as a result of Marshall Islands has a Compact of Free Affiliation with the USA which offers massive quantities of funding plus free individuals motion to the USA. Even with latest crackdowns within the USA this persists, though coping with Marshallese who’ve been forcibly returned from the USA on account of low stage felony behaviour is turning into a coverage problem.
Kiribati has no such association with its personal massive regional accomplice, Australia (former-British Kiribati makes use of the Australian greenback and drives on the left, simply as Marshall Islands makes use of the US greenback and drives on the correct hand aspect of the highway).
To repeat some textual content from the weblog put up the place I launched this chart: Kiribati right now has about 4 instances the inhabitants of Marshall Islands however in 1980 was solely about double. The numerous factor right here is the wasp waist of the Marshall Islands pyramid in 2025—whereas it had an analogous form to Kiribati in 1980. Individuals at peak working and reproductive age are actually absent from right now’s Marshall Islands—on this case, primarily within the USA.
The results of that is that Marshall Islands not solely advantages from its people having extra freedom of motion and alternative, and sending again remittances from comparatively excessive paying lives within the USA; but in addition having a stress valve for what would in any other case be a quickly (too quick?) rising inhabitants. To place it bluntly, Kiribati has an issue of too many individuals (significantly on crowded southern Tarawa); Marshall Islands, if it has a inhabitants downside, is one in all too few. The distinction of crowded, comparatively poor Tarawa and less-crowded, comparatively well-off Majuro is an apparent and stark one to anybody travelling to them each in fast succession.
Pacific individuals are abroad in very appreciable numbers
OK, so individuals have been transferring from the Pacific islands to elsewhere for many years or longer. Proportionately talking, does this matter? Have massive numbers of Pacific islanders cumulatively ended up elsewhere? The next chart solutions this with a convincing “sure”, for a minimum of 9 international locations:
For seven international locations, there are extra individuals ethnically related to that nation dwelling within the USA, New Zealand and Australia than within the origin nation. For the international locations within the backside row – the three New Zealand Realm international locations plus Pitcairn – there are numerous multiples extra individuals dwelling abroad. Round 40,000 Niueans dwell abroad (largely in New Zealand) and fewer than 2,000 in Niue. For Tonga, Samoa and Marshall Islands the state of affairs just isn’t as excessive however nonetheless very substantial.
Illustrating this additional, think about this chart of the world’s largest Pacific Islander cities. Due to feedback on LinkedIn I’ve improved this from earlier variations—we now have a greater estimate of individuals with Pacific Islander as one ‘race’ of a number of in Hawaii, and a extra comparable definition of Larger Wellington. However what we see is broadly the identical message as earlier than—of the highest ten Pacific Islander cities on the earth, two are in Australia (Sydney and Brisbane) and one every in New Zealand (Auckland) and the USA (Honolulu).
All this has substantial implications for cultural and nationwide id, for economics and for politics. What political rights and expectations are there for these abroad individuals? For the house nation, is there a minimal dimension that’s viable? Or perhaps a minimal proportion of your individuals? What occurs legally, politically and diplomatically (for instance, to votes within the United Nations Common Meeting) if—as is clearly potential underneath local weather change—a low-lying coral atoll nation like Tokelau, Marshall Islands or Tuvalu loses all of its land to sea-level rise and all of its individuals are dwelling abroad?
Remittances are a crucial, even dominant, a part of many (however not all) Pacific island economies
With out going to those excessive situations we now have monumental financial implications within the right here and now. One of many strongest indicators of that is the extent of remittances. Remittances are funds from household or different contacts abroad, sometimes in a better earnings nation. The supply of remittances could be individuals on comparatively quick journeys abroad—within the Pacific, examples embody individuals within the Pacific Australia Labour Mobility scheme or the New Zealand Recognised Seasonal Employer scheme—or from long run migrants who’ve made the opposite nation their indefinite house.
We see from this, last, chart that some Pacific island international locations have terribly excessive ranges of remittances in comparison with averages of comparable international locations, together with different small states:
Apparently, the three highest international locations on this measure are not on my checklist of nations with particular entry to everlasting residency in a big wealthy nation. However as beforehand talked about, Samoa and Tonga have significantly sturdy ties to New Zealand that act partway to such particular entry. Vanuatu doesn’t, however it’s the beneficiary of quick time period labour schemes. It’s additionally potential that remittances are under-reported in some international locations.
For international locations like Tonga, it appears possible or a minimum of potential that remittances are coming from long run migrants in New Zealand. After a era or three, will they cease sending a reimbursement to Tonga? Presumably, however as we now have seen there’s a continuous ongoing refreshment within the type of new migrants and it’s possible the remittances will proceed for the forseeable future.
One factor is obvious—labour mobility is an everlasting function of the Pacific area that meets a number of teams’ wants and leaves a decisive mark on each sending and receiving economies. Remittances are only one most direct a part of the financial impression; others embody funding ties and human functionality improvement. However I gained’t go right into a literature evaluate on this space.
There are necessary coverage implications
Why will we care? There are necessary implications of all this. The context of my unique speak was a gathering bringing collectively heads of Nationwide Statistical Workplaces with heads of nationwide planning, and I needed to spotlight inhabitants points as one space the place the hyperlinks between official statistics and nationwide planning and coverage are (or ought to be) significantly sturdy. Among the key financial and planning points on this regard as I see them embody:
- Inhabitants projections (together with at sub-national stage) and the apparent implications for infrastructure and associated planning (if and the place to construct roads, medical centres, colleges, and so forth.)
- Impacts of migration (quick and long run) on the working-age inhabitants again at house and what planning or coverage levers are wanted to cope with this, not simply lament it
- Social impacts of many working-age individuals, maybe disproportionately of 1 gender, being abroad
- Implications for taxation coverage of a big proportion of nationwide earnings coming in remittances
- Impression of migration (in both course) on the web fiscal place (is it working age individuals coming to our nation, paying extra tax than they extract in advantages— or vice versa)
- Particularly, the place do retirees find yourself, and who pays for them
- Impression of returnees from abroad work experiences—together with raised abilities and experiences, larger taxation funds, and common impression on nationwide capabilities and capability
- Impacts on equality again house from various kinds of individuals within the diaspora
- What labour market and cultural context ought to schooling be getting ready younger individuals for?
This goals to be an indicative, moderately than complete, checklist. In spite of everything, my goal right here is to spotlight some points, not enterprise into coverage recommendation that I’ve no mandate for and which might require far more systematic analysis of choices and root causes of the issues.
Different posts on this sequence
The seven weblog posts in complete on this sequence are set out under. The primary six include R code and knowledge sources for every chart:
