NEW ORLEANS — There’s a few 4 p.c likelihood {that a} building-sized asteroid will hit the moon in 2032. Furthermore, there’s a few 1 p.c likelihood that the asteroid, dubbed 2024 YR4, is not going to solely strike the moon but additionally scatter a mess of tiny meteorites into near-Earth area, probably harming satellites and astronauts.
“This might pose loads of dangers to Earth-orbiting property,” stated NASA aerospace engineer Brent Barbee on December 17 on the American Geophysical Union’s annual assembly.
Ought to YR4 hit the moon, the affect may launch as a lot power because the detonation of roughly 6 million metric tons of TNT, or about 400 instances the power launched by the Hiroshima bomb.
Shortly after detecting YR4 in December 2024, scientists reported that it may hit Earth. The percentages peaked at 3.1 p.c on February 18; extra observations precluded that collision. Since then, the percentages of a lunar affect have risen, if solely barely.
If YR4 hit the moon, there’s an 86 p.c likelihood it might accomplish that on the aspect going through Earth. If it did, the affect would generate a flash that “ought to most likely be seen [from Earth] relying on the native viewing circumstances,” stated astronomer Patrick King, who simulated the affect’s brightness and offered his outcomes on the assembly.
Primarily based on the estimated collision date of December 22, 2032, Hawaii would have a superb vantage level, whereas views from the western United States could be “pretty favorable,” stated King, of the Johns Hopkins College Utilized Physics Laboratory in Laurel, Md.
Scientists don’t know YR4’s measurement and mass exactly sufficient to safely deflect it, Barbee stated, although they estimate it’s roughly 60 meters huge. What appears extra sensible is to deliberately break up YR4 utilizing a fast-moving impactor or a nuclear blast, Barbee stated. This needs to be achieved no less than three months earlier than a lunar affect so the ensuing particles spreads removed from Earth, he famous. Ideally, he added, we’d ship a reconnaissance mission within the subsequent few years, too.
“If there are any missions to YR4, they might basically want to begin their growth very, very quickly,” stated Barbee, of NASA’s Goddard Area Flight Heart in Greenbelt, Md.
NASA’s James Webb Area Telescope may observe the asteroid in February 2026, which may assist rule out a lunar affect or elevate the percentages to as excessive as 30 p.c. But when JWST can’t observe the asteroid for any cause, Barbee stated, “we could also be confronted with the necessity to make some choices about YR4 within the face of great uncertainties.”
