Properly, this was my second go to to Lucca Italy in two yr. Final yr I got here for 2 weeks, after visiting Collegio Carlo Alberto. I requested ChatGPT final yr to suggest someplace to go for 2 weeks to be peaceable and write, as I had a spot between Collegio Carlo Alberto and St Gallen, and it beneficial Lucca. I beloved it. I spent two weeks doing nothing however writing and strolling across the metropolis, contained in the outdated renaissance period wall, and alongside the wall. And this yr, I visited IMT Faculty of Superior Research the place I offered new analysis on the conduct of AI brokers in semi-autonomous empirical analysis, in addition to met with college students and college. I made new mates, frolicked with a brand new outdated good friend, and relaxed once more. However now I head to Belgium to KU Leuven for six days. Three days to relaxation, three days to current, do a workshop and kind of meet college and college students. After which I’m performed — Friday I arrive in Madrid, and my week lengthy trip in Spain, in San Sebastián, visiting once more Amelias’s, begins. I’ve promised to myself I’ll eat at Amelia’s yearly till I’m 60 as a part of a “50 issues by age 60”. As I solely turned 50 in November, I can’t depend the opposite two occasions I went with my daughters, so technically it begins now. This might be yr one.
I believe after presenting new diff-in-diff materials round 5 occasions this summer time, the brand new materials has a pleasant arc. I am going by way of the 2×2, them covariates, then steady, then Callaway and Sant’Anna within the context of an utilized paper that went topsy turbo. I’ve determined to not do the “all of the diff in diffs” for some time, as a result of I believe it’s extra essential to focus deeper on one or two issues than go shallow throughout fifty issues. In order that’s what I’ve been doing and to this point, it’s going good. I virtually have the covariate lecture the place I need it, however not fairly. I’m attempting to begin instructing the absolutely saturated regression (two manner fastened results) mannequin for the 2×2 case in order that I can lead into consequence regression (Heckman, ichimira and Todd 1997, restud) after which Jeff Wooldridge’s personal regression adjustment diff-in-diff below staggered adoption. Then I can cowl Borusyak, et al after that, since Jeff reveals his mannequin is numerically the identical as theirs in a balanced panel with out covariates. If I can land all these planes, then I can present the connection between OLS and imputation and regression adjustment whereas overlaying the bias of “vanilla” two manner fastened results. I believe it’s going to work. I simply need to work just a little bit more durable at it but it surely’s shut.
However let me share some tabs as there have been some attention-grabbing ones this week.
This put up by Noah smith in regards to the declining affect he thinks he could have due to the advancing of AI was attention-grabbing. Perhaps. Perhaps not. However even when so, it jogs my memory that the pursuit of affect has by no means been my individual goal perform. I do what I do for 2 causes. I really feel a way of mission and calling to like unconditionally the world and assist create bridges again to econometricians and design. And I do what I do as a result of it feels good and makes me comfortable. I believe we will overthink it to be trustworthy. Mission and love and repair and pleasure are actually solely coincidentally associated to impression. Get the Cart and the horse out of order and I believe you possibly can lose the enjoyment, which is the worst of all.
I learn three tales about the identical factor, all in considerably mainstream media. They’re all about how a serious hack and launch of everybody’s non-public data is imminent. This one was notably troubling. Right here was the second one. And the Atlantic article, “assume you may be hacked.” My prediction is Boomers and the most recent era won’t care, and millennials and Gen X might be troubled, if it rolls out en masse, as Boomers in all probability have on common poorer e-mail, textual content message and social media histories, and the most recent era too.
Which once more I believe the lesson for us all might be to domesticate the braveness to be disliked, and grow to be higher at separating our life duties from what’s others’ life duties. By some means that is each simple to do and simpler stated than performed.
All of the editors of the AEA affiliation journals.
Anthropic finds persistent returns to expertise (or experience reasonably) for AI agentic coding. I’ve been saying that loads in my talks the previous couple of occasions. However in fact when you use AI agentic coding to undertake duties you don’t remotely perceive, then is that actually complementing experience? That appears to be substituting for a lack of awareness.
Twenty-five US states have handed age verification legal guidelines for porn on-line. It has led to blocking of the foremost porn aggregators together with pornhub and its varied properties. (I’m wondering what the HHI is for on-line porn?). A new NBER research finds some proof for deterrence — 10% discount. Which given the bottom price, I’ve to suppose that’s giant. However I didn’t learn the paper and I’m undecided if that’s their interpretation. It’s simply that you just want the bottom as a comparability to know if estimated therapy results are economically significant in absolute worth. And confidence bands are perhaps helpful too.
Attention-grabbing graphic of market share in AI, presumably chatbot utilization however I’m undecided as a result of I’m wondering how copilots and brokers depend. I believe it’s value having one other graph displaying absolute quantity not simply market share although, as I’d like to see these traces as effectively. Btw, I believe you possibly can see when Anthropic built-in Claude code into the native desktop app (November 2025) not simply the command line interface (early 2025). It’s product not simply tech that appears to be driving quite a lot of this.
El Niño is coming And/or is right here already.
It’s a wonderful love story. However Boston residents have beloved the Scottish guests on the town for the World Cup, and the sensation has been mutual. Michelle Wu, Bostons mayor, has proposed Boston and Glasgow to be sister cities even. Try how a lot beer Scottish drank as an example — thrice as a lot as st Patrick’s day! I really like Boston with all my coronary heart. All of it. Each final drop. I really like each freezing chilly temperature within the winter, I really like each sports activities crew, I really like each inch of town.
Will Taylor swift get married at her home in Rhode Island adjoining to the ocean home or at Madison sq. backyard? Unclear.
World Cup guests have found Waffle Home and ranch dressing, and like the remainder of us, fallen in love. You’re a skeptic about dipping your pizza in ranch dressing till the second you do it, and you then suppose what have I been lacking all my life?
Trump loves McDonalds. what I really like? I really like Taco Bell. I really like Taco Bell a lot that I actually can’t even drive by one else I cease. So I’ve to take the great distance simply to keep away from the Taco Bell by ex-wife’s home. My good good friend as soon as advised me Taco Bell goes sued as a result of the quantity of cardboard particles contained in the meat was too excessive. I stated “man I really like cardboard apparently.” Additionally perhaps I dreamt that dialog. Cardboard? In meat?
Elon purchased Cursor for $60 billion making 4 MIT undergrads within the early to mid 20s billionaires. One of many issues I observed at Harvard this final yr was that very factor — college students beginning startups. It have to be such a surreal feeling to know with close to certainty that the likelihood somebody on this classroom will invent some widespread place factor that makes them a billionaire and which can grow to be a quite common factor might be 1.0.
Jersey Mikes has dethroned Chick-Fil-A for quickest service. I name pretend information. That’s unimaginable. Nobody has quicker service than Chick-Fil-A. It’s the dimensions of the logistics concerned. I need to see Jersey Mike with a continuing line to the road and but someway persons are in line in round 5 min. Then I’ll consider it and even then I received’t.
Commodore makes a dumb cellphone. Technically all I need in a cellphone anymore is Duo, Google Maps, Spotify, and doubtless the flexibility to textual content not more than 5 individuals. No apps.
Remembering the 51-day siege that ended with almost everybody dying in a large hearth. The Department Davidian bloodbath. it truly didn’t occur in Waco. It’s important to drive a few half hour to get there. There’s nonetheless an energetic church there. And I’ve gone inside. They despise the federal government, and particularly the Clintons. They flew a MAGA flag alongside some Christian flags after I final went, and weirdly sufficient, contained in the church alongside the partitions had been a lot of issues in regards to the Reformers Martin Luther, John Calvin, and John Knox. I believe additionally Seventh Day Adventist custom too, as David Koresh and the Department Davidian was a sect off a schismatic household tree. It’s value going as a result of you possibly can see the outdated bus and in addition locations the place the kids had been trapped. It’s unusually unhappy and minimalistic with none spectacular monuments.
On the Borders closed in Waco texas. It mentions different closings too. what they don’t counsel as a potential trigger although? GLP-1. I need to say I noticed a paper about this. I don’t see how one can have a weight reduction drug so fashionable, the place the first mechanism is urge for food cessation, and never trigger the restaurant trade to retract.
One of many actually cool issues final week was visiting DIW Berlin. I extremely suggest visiting Berlin.
Contained in the 24 hour whirlwind that led to the White Home slapping Anthropic with export controls over Mythos and Fable. Actually undecided I’m all that upset about that in any respect although. Particularly in gentle of the sooner tales about hacking success charges already rising. However it’s solely a matter of time. Society will adapt, however not with out some critical rising pains. Once more, I desire a commodore dumb cellphone.
Who’s chargeable for the primary occasion research in diff-in-diff? Was it Bob Lalonde et al on this outdated AER article on displaced employees? Weirdly sufficient, the earlier draft didn’t have it however the AER did. I want I knew the story,
My new e book, Causal Inference: The Remix, pre-order hyperlink is up on Amazon. I don’t know if any have been pre-ordered as a result of I tousled the writer web page years in the past and may’t determine it out and don’t need to determine it out. The less variety of issues for me to obsess over, the higher. After I get again, I’ll be working across the clock to get the free model on-line.
Tim Ferris’s, writer of a number of finest promoting self assist books, says AI is killing the self assist trade.
Schema-Guided Reasoning is principally a analysis workflow for AI agentic analysis. I imply it’s additionally extra basic than that, too, but it surely’s for positive for us. I’ve been working alone workflow for empirical analysis for 2 months now and I believe the bones are there. After I’m performed, I’ll share. However for now, learn that.
Has AI ruined the job market? Who is aware of.
Larger order polynomials, staggered adoption, and shifting past parallel traits.
Worldwide scholar enrollment plummets in lots of locations creating insolvency points for some colleges. That, plus the enrollment cliff, and federal cuts goes to have a profound and unprecedented reshaping of excessive training.
Quera Jewlery in Spain. And right here.
And with that, I say ciao ciao! Not a ton of hyperlinks this week, however sufficient I bought to shut them. See everybody subsequent week!
