In
case you had been questioning, Polymarket had one more spate of seemingly
inside merchants betting that the US would strike Iran by February 28.Per the due diligence investigation service Bubblemaps, the wallets used
had been created 24 hours earlier.The Pentagon Pizza Index has been changed.
— Matthew Sheffield (@matthew.flux.group) February 28, 2026 at 5:26 PM
“.. this is kind of providing a proxy market on assassination,” Amanda Fischer, a former chief of workers on the Securities and Trade Fee, wrote on X ..
@wsj.com
www.wsj.com/world/center…— Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla.bsky.social) March 1, 2026 at 10:15 AM
It’s insane that is authorized. Individuals round Trump are profiting off conflict and loss of life. I’m introducing laws ASAP to ban this.
— Chris Murphy (@chrismurphyct.bsky.social) February 28, 2026 at 6:09 PM
Emily Nicolle writing for Bloomberg:
As US and Israeli bombs fell on Iran this
weekend, bettors on Polymarket — the place $529 million was traded on
contracts tied to the timing of the strikes — had been cashing in. Nearly
instantly, blockchain sleuths started trying to find uncommon patterns in
latest bets.Six accounts on Polymarket made round $1 million in revenue by betting on the US to strike Iran by Feb. 28, based on analytics agency Bubblemaps SA.
The accounts had been all freshly created in February and had solely ever
positioned bets on when US strikes would possibly happen. A few of their shares had been
bought, in some circumstances at roughly a dime apiece, hours earlier than the
first explosions had been reported in Tehran.These
are the hallmarks that blockchain analysts affiliate with insider
buying and selling in prediction markets, an business with out widespread oversight
and no agreed-upon methodology for distinguishing luck from leaks — and
they’re removed from conclusive on their very own. Related patterns instructed
that an insider made a giant revenue betting on the ouster of Venezuela’s
Nicolás Maduro in January, and have additionally been used to determine a number of
different circumstances of alleged insider buying and selling.…
Kalshi Inc., a Commodity Futures Buying and selling Fee-regulated rival, mentioned Saturday it doesn’t provide markets that decide on loss of life. Within the occasion of Khamenei’s loss of life, it mentioned
it might resolve its contract based mostly on the final value provided. Kalshi’s
CEO Tarek Mansour later mentioned on X that the platform would reimburse all
buying and selling charges from such bets.Polymarket’s
important buying and selling platform is located offshore and doesn’t settle for US-based
prospects, putting it exterior the CFTC’s oversight. The corporate has
argued that its contracts present worthwhile information as a result of they crowdsource
info in unstable conditions and assist the general public gauge danger,
particularly when standard reporting lags.
Sidenote:
The Supreme Chief insisted on not taking particular safety measures though he knew the assaults had been about to begin and was killed in his dwelling. He needed to die this manner.
The idea of martyrdom is a particularly potent, galvanizing power in Shia and Iranian tradition.
— Ali Ahmadi (@aliahmadi.bsky.social) March 1, 2026 at 2:42 AM
Ahmadi continues.
There have been def folks in Washington who suggested Trump not to do that, principally saying, “hes 90, hes had most cancers twice, hes going to die quickly anyway. Dont make him a martyr for the trigger”. He didnt pay attention.
