I hope everybody had a contented valentines weekend and that you weren’t social gathering into massacres, solely beautiful evenings with laughter and tenderness, from whomever, with whomever. Right this moment’s put up is supposed to shut a couple of extra stragglers.
The motherhood, or generally known as the kid penalty, is a regression specification by Klevin, et al (right here’s a latest one however the authentic is 2019), normally utilizing administrative information and a diff-in-diff design, that recenters the info from the date of a primary beginning, after which tracks earnings and different profession outcomes for moms towards a matched counterfactual. It has change into the workhorse design for evaluating and discussing gender gaps.
However a brand new paper challenges the outcome, focusing apparently on identification within the difference-in-differences, specifically the function that choice into motherhood based mostly on the time path of untreated potential outcomes may play. This substack summarizes the talk and will get closely into the connection between the parallel developments assumption, choice mechanism, and whether or not pre-trends are ample for ruling out issues with assuming parallel developments.
Valentina Melentyeva at Tilburg has additionally written about potential trial biases within the standard baby penalty occasion examine design. However apparently, Valentina finds the bias is in the other way implied by the above substack critique as she finds its heterogeneity bias, now well-known with TWFE and staggered adoption. Her examine finds the impact sizes, when corrected, are even bigger than implied by the Klevin et al specification. (Full disclosure, Valentina was a Mixtape Fellow).
Longtime readers will know that I’ve very on this Choice and Parallel Tendencies paper by Ghanem, Sant’Anna and Wüthrich, each with how choice could make parallel developments unimaginable, but additionally which of these choice mechanisms that fulfill parallel developments may also assure parallel pre developments. I talk about a few of this in my new e book, Causal Inference: the Remix, leaning laborious on Ghanem, et al and my very own simulations, to assist define a few of this. I wrote a bunch about this within the Pedro’s Guidelines (see the tab above), however right here’s one the place parallel pre-trends didn’t give us PT and vice versa, however there have been like six of those I wrote about:
On being paired with a low effort associate.
Wirecutter has some nice present concepts for Presidents Day, in addition to some nice mattress concepts to provide your excessive effort associate and also you a great nights relaxation.
The sheer quantity of unnecessarily exact taxonomies, with vocabulary that means it’s some new discovery, form of grates on my nerves. Makes it really feel like fashionable courting wants flash playing cards. Right here’s one other one known as monkey branching, which is simply when somebody plans to breaks up with somebody with another person on deck in thoughts. Fairly positive that’s as previous as time.
However not all the time. Generally the brand new vocabulary may be very useful. Situationship is one such instance of a phrase that describes an actual idea that does advantage from higher description. Most likely situationship and ghosting are the 2 courting phrase jargon which have made significant contributions to our relationship vocabulary and fashionable taxonomy. Right here is an article explaining what a situationship is and offers steering for navigating it, and when and when you so want, out of it.
Attention-grabbing trying paper — researcher’s personal priors has helped form the diploma to which there’s proof for the secularization speculation, even empirically. Would like to see a many analyst design utilized to that query,
Brynjolffson, et al is a paper learning minimal wages’ impact on automation in the direction of robots. I anticipate to see increasingly more of this being part of the minimal wage research. With the appearance of buyer AI merchandise, I feel the query has a face worth logical instinct, and so the substitution of capital for labor in all probability subsequently is one thing many will discover simple to just accept, and which has coverage implications as effectively.
Joint savoring is the mutual, shared follow of deliberately attending to, appreciating, and soaking in constructive experiences along with one other particular person. It’s if you decelerate and collectively on constructive shared experiences. And {couples} who do it are thought to have happier relationships and are extra hopeful the connection will endure.
A examine of 600 youngsters within the UK counsel better self consciousness and a way of objective could increase grades.
I’m an enormous fan of Darkish Winds on Netflix, however I’m nonetheless not achieved with season 3. Or reasonably I’ve not allowed the time to begin it. However now season 4 is out and it’s getting unimaginable evaluations too. It’s set on a Native American reservation within the Seventies, and is concerning the reservation’s small police power. However as with so many reveals, it’s about greater than that, whereas nonetheless being fairly particular. Thriller, motion, drama.
The CEO of Anthropic was on Ross Douthat’s podcast just lately. And here’s a snippet of the trade:
“Suppose you will have a mannequin that assigns itself a 72 % likelihood of being acutely aware,” Douthat started. “Would you consider it?”
Amodei known as it a “actually laborious” query to reply, however hesitated to provide a sure or no reply.
“We don’t know if the fashions are acutely aware. We’re not even positive that we all know what it will imply for a mannequin to be acutely aware or whether or not a mannequin might be acutely aware,” he mentioned. “However we’re open to the concept that it may very well be.”
He was additionally on this podcast, and mentioned comparable issues.
Belonging issues, however the feeling you matter does too. They’re maybe collectively obligatory situations for the psychology of a life price dwelling. Extra on this from The Mattering Intuition: How Our Deepest Longing Drives Us and Divides Us, Harvard thinker Rebecca Newberger Goldstein.
A working paper by Julian Wang and Victor Wang reinforce the fabric I’ve been filming on my Claude Code sequence the place I replicate and lengthen a paper by Card, et al analyzing the textual content patterns in 300,000 speeches utilizing gpt-4o-mini, a price efficient different to the human aggravated Roberta mannequin the authors used. I spent $11 and a pair hours model the $10k+ they spent and who is aware of how lengthy they spent. Maybe that is generalizable and if that’s the case, then the worldwide welfare implications for researchers might be giant, significantly for beneath resourced people in different international locations searching for to take action comparable textual content evaluation.
However for all anybody is aware of, the long run includes AI brokers writing all of our analysis papers. A match is beneath manner the place the AER and AEJs papers are pitted towards totally automated program analysis papers. To this point they’re shedding, on some measures anyway, however for a way lengthy and what then? Hat tip: Jason Fletcher
However one issues for sure: none of us can afford to take a seat round and delay on our papers, and none of us can afford to half ass Job and our work both. As a result of who is aware of what Larry Katz is coping with on the QJE. I believe the already low acceptance price is about to get even decrease.
The Unfamiliar can also be getting rave evaluations on Netflix.
If you happen to nonetheless haven’t learn this Acemoglu and Johnson’s financial historical past article concerning the Industrial Revolution and the automation of labor then, I encourage it now, and needless to say AI automated inventive, cognitive work. And when you disbelieve that, it’s solely since you’ve not been paying consideration.
What does Moltbook and the rise of AI remedy inform us about “AI hype”? MIT Know-how Overview has one thing on all of that.
The key to raised intercourse will not be higher intercourse. You don’t goal for the objective, which implies it’s not the objective however reasonably is an unintended results of the bigger objective being prioritized and achieved. Learn to search out out.
One other courting app, and from a Stanford undergrad. This one is extra of a matchmaking service than the swiping period has dominated the swiping period. I’m unsure if a thousand courting apps may be very environment friendly, tbh. However I believe the market kinds it out in due time and we’ll be again to Match corp proudly owning all of them apart from Bumble.
The 11 traits that (allegedly) can’t be faked of sensible folks.
Maybe the friendship paradigm, characterised by voluntary-ism and mutual achievement, characterize all or most fashionable relationships?
The 2 turning level ages in ageing are 44 and 60 in accordance with a examine.
And that’s all! Completely happy day after valentines / valentines / palenstines day! And I depart all of you with this blessing from Luka Brasi!
Thanks everybody for supporting this substack! Look ahead to extra Claude code and econometrics this week!
